Speculation about whether we are at a bottom is just that,...

Speculation about whether we are at a bottom is just that, speculation. However one of my indicators suggest we may be very near or indeed have reached a bottom.

I call it the "carrion bird indicator". It is opposite to the "shoe shine boy indicator" from the great depression era. Which exemplified the overt exuberance of the stock market participants prior to the great crash.

The "carrion bird" indicator measures the activity of Hotcopper posters who do not hold a particular stock but feel the need to post on its thread and announce what a terrible investment the stock is. It is aptly named from birds that prey on dead animals and often loudly announce there find to the rest of the animal kingdom.

My indicator threw up some interesting facts at the beginning of the week. I looked at the number of posters who did not hold SLR and the number that did hold. Admittedly some non-holders were not making negative statements. However the numbers are revealing. Of the four most recent topics going back to around the beginning of December, holders of the stock who posted accounted for 153 postings and non-holders accounted for 250 postings.
That means an extraordinary 62% of postings were by non-holders. I've never seen a period like it.

This is all very tongue in cheek, although the numbers are accurate. I am sure that posters are genuine in their belief and that makes the stats most compelling!