goodluck and farewell, page-15

ANT I respect what you say, didnt mean to come off so flippant.

But I hope for your sake now that all the preconditions for a bid are satisfied we dont get a bid in the very near term for your "preservation of capital" strategy may suddenly look like $300k that got away, still each to their own.

BTW am interested in your logic: Shell will be in front if they bid $200m for Crux again in 2014.

Really?

So the gas AND THE LIQUIDS and the STRATEGIC VALUE of crux are worth in total $200m?
Sorry that's laughable. No way will Shell, nor NXS nor Korea Gas and Osaka Gas allow Crux to revert. Will Crux the central field in the greater crux region only be worth $200m in 2014 now that its largely assessed? No

The reason Osaka and Kogas are supposedly running the numbers on NXS are because they both know the strategic value of the Crux gas and the greater Crux region to Shell in light of Prelude being a little light on. Likewise Shell aren't moving forward on the crux extensions because they're bored: they NEED THE GAS! And Osaka etc see a way into the Prelude FLNG thru Crux.

Somehow I also doubt an organistaion like shell will go FID on the $10 BILLION Prelude project thinking that the additional gas they need for the project to proceed is "uncertain" until say 2014/2015 AT LEAST. What happens if they get outbid in a further round or it suddenly costs them say $1b (for the gas & condensate)and suddenly Prelude is short gas??? WHY WOULDN'T SOMEONE ELSE HOLD SHELL TO RANSOM AND BID $2b FOR CRUX IN ANOTHER round knowing shell was 80% way thru construction AND SPEND but still needed crux

Finally I think you underestimate RC if you think all this effort is over a mere $200m play.