Google and global warming, page-21

I think the $5 million second stage of the canal project has disappeared, though as the last presentation mentioned there is ongoing maintenance work of $1-2 million pa. So the definite work we have in China is $10 million from the wetlands project, plus $1-2 million maintenance on the canal project. If you assume $5-6 million outside China (similar to last year) that gives us $16-18 million as the base for this year, or similar to last year's latest projection of $15-17 million.

Thus we need new contracts in China of another $20 million (similar to last year, but delivered in the financial year) to get near your $40 million estimate for 2018-19. No doubt we will get some more contracts, but we have no guidance on when or how large. I would also be interested in knowing how quickly we are getting paid. If there are longer than expected lags that could explain the capital raising.

The current $209 million is a huge market cap (particularly with diluting options likely to be converted this year) for a firm with NPBT of $3-4 million last year. An historical PE of 50 plus. Newing suggests revenue of $38 million this year and net profit of $10.5 million. Possible, but not certain. Adding in 50 million converted options and the market cap would be around $230 million at the current share price and the PE still over 20. To double the share price as you suggest implies the PE stays at 40 plus.

The future may be bright, but the question is how rapidly will it be delivered? As an oldie, like Newing, I am happy to take some profits at these levels.