Chang has been calling China's "imminent bust" for the last...

Chang has been calling China's "imminent bust" for the last eleven years - sounds a bit like the Chinese Martis, except Martis has more credibility.

A "Brilliant" Forecaster Gordon Chang is not, February 9, 2010

This review is from: The Coming Collapse of China (Hardcover)

One might make a prediction or two about the fate of the world in the comfort of one's home, among one's close friends and family after a couple of stiff drinks and no one could care less about them in a day or two. Gordon Chang made the mistake of writing a book about his predictions of China so that for as long as he shall live, people could hold his predictions against him. This reader wouldn't really care about someone who thinks he knows a thing or two about China simply because he's of Chinese descent but for the fact that 10 years after the book was written, the collapse (which was supposed to take place within ten years from when the book was written) as predicted by the author still has not happened and the forecaster is nevertheless being interviewed by Western media as some China "expert".

China no doubt has many problems, some hidden from outsiders' view but some of the key predictions made in the book - China's economy was to be destroyed by its inefficient state owned enterprises, the Communist party was soon going to be overthrown by the people whom it rules with an iron fist, joining the WTO was going to completely expose China's lack of competitiveness and destroy its economy, and the internet was going to usher in an era of unprecedented free discourse which would eventually lead to democracy - have turned out to be completely wrong (and some to the detriment of China's people and the rest of the world). In fact, one would have trouble being more wrong making predictions about anything, including the weather and the timing of the end of the world.

Why was Chang so off? This reader's guess is that although he spent (and still spends) considerable amounts of time in China, he isolated himself in the elitist/intellectual/expat circle and really had little understanding of things happening outside of that small circle. For example, as much as Chang and other westerners may wish and believe, China's Communist Party enjoys popular support among the vast majority of peasants and the very poor. Call it ignorance and the result of brain-washing if you wish. It is also popular among the wealthy and the powerful who owe their recently found wealth and power to the policies and direct handouts by the Party. So the people who are truly unhappy under the rule by the communists are the still relative small middle class and the intellectuals (Chang's small circle of friends). So while the corrupt current regime may not be there forever, they are going to prove many western forecasters wrong for many years to come.

Also, Chang thought the lack of a credible belief system was going to lead the people to turn toward religions and cults en mass. He thought the Chinese could not become more materialistic than they already were. But 10 years later, the Chinese are at once more religious and more materialistic. There are thriving underground church communities, who are, contrary to Chang's prediction, not preaching violence or hostility against their government who in turn (again contrary to Chang's prediction) has for the most part tolerated their growth. At the same time, many Chinese, if not most, have made "a pact with the devil" agreeing to give up a substantial part of their personal liberty in exchange for greater material wealth. This reviewer is not suggesting that this scenario is a) preferred or b) will last forever but any forecasts of the communists' imminent demise are simply laughable.

And of course, nothing is a bigger slap on Chang's face than the miraculous growth of the Chinese economy over the past decade in direct contradiction to his forecast of a total collapse. This reviewer can't help but wonder what state of economic health Chang's in? If he is doing well then he must have either joined the corrupt elite or benefited from the government's liberal economic policies. For he could not have benefited from being a so-called China expert. This reader enjoyed reading his book, mainly from counting the mistakes Chang makes on every page.

China's economy or its government may one day collapse yet but their timing is surely out of the grasp of some intellectual light weight like Chang. Here is one last question: who is the bigger fool, Chang or the media outlets that hire him?

Doom and Gloom Sell (Again), July 28, 2005

By Steve Koss (New York, NY United States) -

This review is from: The Coming Collapse of China (Hardcover)

Remember the names? THE WARNING: THE COMING GREAT CRASH IN THE STOCK MARKET, Y2K - IT'S ALREADY TOO LATE, CONQUER THE CRASH, THE COMING CRASH IN THE HOUSING MARKET, PATRIOTS: SURVIVING THE COMING CRASH, THE COMING COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR AND HOW TO PROFIT FROM IT, and, of course, the greatest (and silliest) doomsday collection of all time, THE LEFT BEHIND SERIES. Doom will always have its day, Chicken Littles will watch and read and fret, authors and publishers will collect their take, and the unfilled prophecies of ruin will soon be forgotten in the wake of a newer batch. And thus it is with Gordon Chang's THE COMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA.

Published in 2001, Chang argues that China's deeply entrenched and long-standing economic difficulties, the Communist Party's intransigence and desperate efforts at self-preservation, and the country's coming accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will combine to create the necessary conditions for revolution and overthrow. All that will be needed will be the right spark and the emergence of the right leader to take advantage. The thesis is, of course, plausible enough, but what doomsday prophecy doesn't have its elements of plausibility? Marshal enough arguments on one side of any issue and ignore the counterbalancing factors, and any situation can start looking like an imminent crisis.

This type of one-sided presentation is, unfortunately, precisely what Mr. Chang gives us. He is clearly knowledgeable about China, and he certainly identifies most of the country's major problems: bankrupt State-owned enterprises (SOE's), technically insolvent banks with huge quantities of non-performing loans, a ruling party lacking in ideas and the political will to change, a government addicted to creeping incrementalism out of fear of losing control, stifling of private enterprise and innovation, declining quality of life for millions of peasants, and the people's own access to information, and to each other, via the Internet. Yet at the same time, he either ignores or diminishes the importance of foreign investment capital, building of thousands of new factories, a seemingly inexhaustible pool of cheap and willing labor, the Chinese people's own rampant entrepreneurialism, and their enormous drive for material goods and a better life.

Chang's writing style tends toward the dry and overly repetitive, as if saying something often enough will make it so. His arguments are often perceptive, yet at the same time they sound heavily opinionated, lacking in substantive supporting detail or statistics. His writing is best when he humanizes it, telling us stories of individual Chinese people - more of this would have been better. `

Chang's book is also littered with odd inaccuracies and unfairly negative interpretations that left me questioning the merits of his bigger arguments. On the lesser side, for example, he incorrectly identifies pop singer A Mei (Zhang Huimei) as "Ah Mei" and describes internationally renowned architect I.M. Pei as born in Guangzhou. Pei himself says (in a June, 2004 interview in Archtectural Record) that he was born in Suzhou. Chang twice describes the White Swan Hotel in Guangzhou as "aging" and once as "dingy" - it is no such thing (I was there in 2002, 2003, and 2004). He also claims the Chinese government makes Westerners stay if they are adopting Chinese babies from Guangzhou - wrong on both counts. The babies come from all over China, and the adoptive parents stay at the White Swan because it is a five minute walk from the American Consulate where they will pick up their infants' American travel visas. More disturbing, he disparages Western companies' first mover advantage as nonexistent while ignoring the experiences of KFC, Coke, Pepsi, Nike, Polo, Budweiser, P&G's Crest and Pampers brands, Nestle's, and VW. Chang inappropriately equates China's 40% national savings rate as a vote of no confidence in the government, ignoring the lessons of decades if not centuries of historical experience and upheavals as well as cultural tradition (such as parents saving to buy a home for their son and his new bride). He also manages to describe Internet usage in China as "hobbled" even as it grew from October 1997 to December 2003 at a compound rate of over 100% per year!

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA is an informative book for those not familiar with China, as it offers good insight into the country's economic, political, and social systems and their shortcomings. The danger is that the reader will come away with a profoundly negative and pessimistic view of China beyond what the country warrants. Imagine the roles being reversed, with Chinese people reading about America's negatives (rabid political polarization, manufacturing job loss, staggering corporate frauds and bankruptcies, decaying infrastructure, broken health care system, low-functioning educational system, massive government budget deficits and trade imbalances, terrorism, gun crimes, religious fundamentalism), and you see the problem.

http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Collapse-China-Gordon-Chang/dp/0812977564/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpt_1

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This is also worth reading: Fearmongering - Adam Hamilton