Thanks for your thoughts
@HaveACrack30, I always like reading opposing views to my own. It makes me challenge my own thinking. However, it can be difficult finding good arguments when the majority of the discussion is ad hominem, as seems to be the case with this stock most of the time. You do occasionally find the odd nugget of useful information though, both from bears and bulls.
I haven't been able to find a copy of the McGrath Nicol report (not sure if it's publicly available, if anyone knows where to find it would be great to share), but just going off media reports they didn't say it's definitely required. From AFR report (on the thread
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/slater-gordon-needs-debt-fix-afr.3099698/ if you're not subscribed)
"
Insolvency firm McGrathNicol has released its report on the financial state of troubled law firm Slater & Gordon concluding that a restructure may be required subject to further forecasts about its financial performance."
To me, this reinforces my view that it would only be required if the PIP either falls behind schedule or doesn't deliver the necessary levels of improvement to satisfy the banks. Since there's been no reports of the PIP significantly failing to deliver on schedule or performance side, I'm a happy holder regardless of the share price. My view is that it will eventually rise to where I think it should be.
With regard to the company reporting on media speculation, I'm not too fussed about it. In fact I think they shouldn't focus too much on it, as it detracts from them performing their actual job. Anyone that makes an investment decision based purely on media speculation is lazy and deserves to lose money in my opinion. I think they are giving enough information to make an informed decision, and media reports should be questioned by investors for their accuracy in any case as a matter of course (remember bad news sells, and rumours and innuendo seem to get reported by certain media outlets as a matter of course). I'm always wary when they only reference their info as "sources say...". Also tend to take analyst comments with a grain of salt (prefer to form my own opinion based on the available information).
Until there's evidence the PIP is not meeting expectations, I'm holding (my opinion could change as soon as the half yearly results get reported). A stock with this amount of debt (thus risk) is not for everyone, but I'm young (possibly foolish and reckless), have a low entry point and can afford to lose every cent I've invested in it without it having a significant impact on my future, so I'm lucky in that sense. If I do lose the lot on it (not that I think that's likely), I'll look back on it as a learning experience.
As an aside, I'd challenge people that are thinking about buying but holding off for fear of dilution to make their own fair value assessment of the stock, and then consider the scenarios of how a dilution would affect it. Eg, if your fair value is (hypothetically) $1, and a dilution doubled the number of shares on issue, then your new fair value (not taking into consideration that it would rise because of the lower debt) would be 50c. So you'd still be looking at a ~100% gain over the next year or 2. I'd say that's a pretty good investment in anyone's books. Certainly worth buying a small parcel and seeing what happens if you ask me.
Again, all my own opinion, DYOR and GLTA
