Not sure how long ur in the slammer but heres something for you to reflect on from your solitary confinement cell.
A number of things you have said cannot go unchallenged as they are plainly incorrect:
1.You said "GXY is a 'speccie' explorer".
GXY is NOT an EXPLORER - GXY is a MINER with a JORC compliant resource, a completed DFS, a mining lease, a LT shipping agreement, an offtake agreement with Mitsubishi, facilities under construction on two continents, pre-stripping started , good cash reserves, and core funding all but settled.
Obviously GXY are not an explorer.
2. You said "GXY has no fundamentals" .... "A Financial Analyst or Fund manager needs all of the above to assess the 'fundamentals'"
I'm with Stringtickler on this one. What about DCF - what do think is in the DFS and what do you think financiers look at before they commit funds - they review DCF analysis forecasts. If you simply wait for figures to hit a balance sheet you are too late and have missed the boat - a bit like driving using the rear vision mirror.
DCF is fundamental analysis and can still be used early on, during and after feasibility studies - of course the level of certainty increases as time goes on and it is better to have a JORC resource and BFS.
The best profits can be made by running some DCF numbers early on before the charts reflect the potential fundamental value - EXT is a prime example of this with still no DFS completed and yet EXT has a $2b market cap, is in the ASX200 and currently #100 by market cap). Its not hard for us simple minded PIs to run a few basic numbers.
And even if P&L and balance sheet figures are available - analysts still use forecasts and projections to see if the future DCF analysis shows the NPV is above the current market cap or EV. Risk is still involved trying to get the projections right.
3. You said "My formula is 76/181 x $2.20 (+ or - 20%) for market factors or 92.37c"
Your formula is significantly outdated and was incorrect in the first place for calculating the effect of dilution from a placement.
The correct formula is: [(A*B) + (C*D)]/E A=current SP B=current x # of shares on issue C=issue price of new shares D=# of new shares to be issued E=total number of shares after placement=(B+D)
Applying it to the current situation assuming that 31.25m shares will be issued to CHRL at 88c
[(125.5*151.4)+(88*31.25)]/182.65 = 119c
ONLY A 6.5c DROP, hardly a massive dilution.
Best of luck and hope you enjoy your time for reflection.
GXY Price at posting:
42.6¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
