I like what is happening to CNM and am holding for long term but...

I like what is happening to CNM and am holding for long term but I would also like to increase my holding by trading a bit.. therefore I am hoping more seasoned traders can let me know whether the current increase in the share price has factored in the government grant that is almost certain to be issued to CNM this year?
It seems the price jump is huge compared to the recent spike when they announced they could use Garden Island in WA as a working model.... Is the bigger jump of the last few days because people simply feel positive about SA or because buyers are taking the stock more seriously and projecting forward to an increased share price after the gov grant? (I think it's double every dollar the company puts up?)... If so, and the grant isn't announced for a few months is the price likely to drop back to 12c again?