There has been a lot of talk about what the size of government grants is going to be and whether or not this is going to have an impact on the share price etc etc.
For mine, it has only ever been about whether MHM can commercialize an industry changing technology from an original plant in Australia, and if you really understand the end markets and industry cost curves you know the upside far outweighs any delays we may have along the way.
So the question still remains...... If you think that MHM are going to build a plant in the US then MHM shares at $1 are a bargain because the future value is what you are investing in. Some on here will try and tell you that it is about a quarterly - but that is rubbish.
As we all know there have been some delays, ands we all know that we were probably a little ambitious in our assumptions in the US, but we are absolutely on the money with the assessment of the upside and earnings that this tech can deliver. So I ask another question, what is the value you assign to an earnings stream of 30m EBITDA in 2013-2014? and then possibly 35-45m in 2015-2016? This is just assuming a couple of average sized plants in the US where the first has contracts for start and the second is well in the realm of the market size.
The doomsdayers will say - yea but that is ages away etc etc, but then they are happy investing in isolated land packages with no funding originally in place, where they have to first drill, firm up a JORC, invest in infrastructure etc so their arguments do not make sense in the context of their other activities.
Which leads me to my last two points. The government grants, irrespective of their size, add weight to the advancement of building our fist plant in the US as do the initial contracts. This in turn makes our forward earning estimates less risky and the commercialization of our technology closer to a reality. To have a government simply stand next to you, welcome your business, hand you xxxx$ and then come to the conclusion that this will cause a share price drop is crzy talk. There is no price factored into the share price on an assumption of grant size, therefore there should be no share price drop.
We should simply be excited about this opportunity progressing - which in no uncertain terms it is.
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