Everyone here seems insistent on refusing to see that the market isn't going to invest in a company just because it's in a certain industry.
If I start up Sdaji's cybersecurity company, the market is going to ignore it because I am incapable of running a cybersecurity company, I would do a terrible job, and my figures would be bad. If I was able to run my company profitably, and I showed quarterly reports with consistent good figures, the market would value my company accordingly.
The above is true of any company, whether the industry it is in is favourable or not. Just being in the right or wrong industry will have some impact, sure, but it's not at all the be all and end all everyone here seems to think it is and certainly won't mean anything if the company is long term cashflow negative.
The market was highly sceptical of Tesserent's roll up strategy. So far, Tesserent has not vindicated itself with good figures, so completely understandably, the market is very much unconvinced. This is just the reality, regardless of how rose tinted the glasses you're looking at it through are.
Having great tailwinds just makes the lack of profits look worse. If I have actual tailwinds and my boat is not going where I want it to, that's not going to inspire anyone to think I have a good boat, quite the opposite.
Everyone hates me for explaining why it's going to do what I think it's going to do, and it's exactly what has transpired, but maybe a better strategy would be to accept reality.
Anyway, it was completely predictable that we were going to end up somewhere around here at this time. If you have faith in the company's ability to produce good revenue this quarter (the one which finished last month), and if you're correct, hey, the market is going to be surprised in less than a week and you're going to see the share price rally. No doubt the report will be made to sound upbeat regardless of the nature of the actual figures, and most likely the price will jump at least a pip or two right after the quarterly, but if it's not good we're going to see 10c support fail and it's going to get ugly. I've been very open about expecting things to get to where they are now, but I don't really know what to expect in this quarterly, and nothing would really surprise me. The upside is that the market clearly doesn't expect anything good, so it'll respond very favourably to genuinely good data, since currently that is clearly not priced in.
In the short term the market seems to not understand TNT quarterlies, so assuming the 4c comes during trading hours or shortly before them in the morning, there should be the opportunity to jump in or out before the market reacts if you're keeping close watch and actually know how to interpret a financial report. I'm sort of expecting the TNT usual; a bad report which everyone here gets excited about, celebrates the jump of a small number of pips in the first hour or two after release, then posts in confusion when the price drops lower, and I wonder if I should bother posting and being abused again. But, we'll see.
To put things into perspective, this is the weekly TNT chart beginning from the first week of last calendar year. Regardless of the fundamentals, the technicals are undeniably terrible, and without some good fundamental results, this is likely to get ugly. Don't blame me for the chart or the market, I'm not responsible, I'm just the only one here willing to discuss the elephant in the room.
10c support has been holding remarkably strongly for over four months, but you'd have to be blind not to see all the stop losses set just below it. The first quarter of the financial year is TNT's weakest, and that's what we're about to be taking a look at. Hold on if you believe you've done your due diligence and believe the results will be surprisingly good, but I'd sure as heck be ready to drop this hot potato if that report is bad.
I sincerely hope the figures are better than expected, and while it's an extremely dangerous position with a bad risk:reward ratio at the moment IMO, there's certainly the potential for a rally.
Cue the haters.
TNT Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
