I am somewhat confused by the positive and negative nuance of the posts and maybe even the announcements. To begin with, what are the risks and economics of the projects? Clearly, there is a jurisdictional risk, Uganda is not in Australia, but this has been identified and factored in the investment risk profile. The price of rare earths, particularly when demand exceeds supply, is difficult to manipulate and is reflected in the price. I note that comments range from 'there is a significant shortage, but China is artificially holding the price low', to 'other rare earth miners and manufacturers possess higher rare earths specifications than IXR and will significantly increase supply to meet demand', 'the projects are uneconomic, at current prices and the feasibility studies are flawed and the projects are uneconomic unless rare earth prices are extremely high'.
My questions/comments:
1. The supply and demand for rare earths, focus on inventories, is reflected in the price. If future demand significantly exceeds future supply, then the price of rare earths will increase to reflect demand exceeding supply?
2. Is the feasibility studies flawed because the rare earth price forecast is extremely optimistic?
3. Project begins in 2026, does this mean there is no production, no cash inflow, between now and 2026
I would like more information about the economics of the projects. For example, when will net cash inflow begin? Sales forecasts for the next three years? Projects valuation based on worst case, realistic case, and best-case scenarios over the next five years.
Bos007.
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