Looking at the updated shareholder register as of March 13 it is pleasing to see an increase in the number of shareholders the past year.
Furthermore it's obvious why the share price has not moved up significantly despite positive announcements these last 2 to 3 months.
As at March 31, 2016 there were 608 individual shareholders. 291 of those had parcels 10k to 100k and 239 had parcels 100k+.
Moving to March 13, 2017, the register is up 36% with 827 individual shareholders. 442 of those had parcels 10k to 100k and 299 had parcels 100k+.
Why the share price has not moved IMO is because from December 6, 2016 to March 13, 2017, JP Morgan divested 31,557,728 shares (out of total volume for that period of 61,148,386) reducing its holding to 35,174,907 shares.
From March 14 to 17 the total share volume was a further 22,973,586, principally due to a 17.3 million S3 XT transaction that is extremely likely to have been JP Morgan, and 4 million plus shares transacted on market on March 16, coinciding with an assay results announcement.
I conservatively estimate over those 4 days that JP Morgan has divested around a further 20 million shares leaving them with around 15 million shares (this i have no proof).
Assuming that estimate is correct that means that JP Morgan accounts for 51.7 million of the 84.1 million share volume for Dec 6, 2016 to Mar 17, 2017, over 61% of the volume.
A further 1.6 million shares were transacted on Friday, the first decent volume day since March 16 with JP Morgan potentially being a seller of least 1 million shares (again my assumption).
This is why IMO the increase in share price has been so stifled since assay results commenced in January and share price targets of 10c (Petra Capital) and 11c (Sophisticated Investor) were updated or newly announced. We saw a very quick move from the December 19, 2016 low of 3.0 cents to 4.0 cents by the 6th January with no further upwards movement until now.
As of last week I am fully invested in GPR and happy to share this analysis on JP Morgan. I await with great interest GPR first proving the 1.2 million ounce resource to enable the company progressing to 80% share of Woodlark and then expediting production. And there is Cambodia and Fiji to potentially lift the share price later down the track.
My advice is it is now time to buy and prospective GPR purchasers (or existing investors looking to top up) to definitely get in before JP Morgan divest all their shareholding (assuming they will sell the last 14 million odd shares I estimate they hold).
And if you are seeking a significant chunk (500k+) don't pick up the offers unless there is a large volume one showing at the top, but rather place your order at the top line of bids on occasion uou can see those being picked off in large volumes as happened last Friday in the first few minutes of trade.
Finally, here is my "crystal ball attempt" to provide a GPR share price forecast estimate for rest of 2016 (gold staying above $1,200) based on stated milestones being attained, the various statements by company and analysts in recent weeks and my analysis re JP Morgan divesting.
- move above 5c upon JP Morgan completing divestment or stopping selling (timing April or May)
- 7c plus assuming 1.2 million resource is proven and move to 51% (timing June to August)
- 9c plus upon completion of BFS (August to October)
- 10c plus on obtaining financing for production (by end 2016)
This is my analysis and comments for GPR but please DYOR. There are numerous links and data in this thread to give you far more background on the company and establish your own opinion.
Good fortune I hope to all other GPR shareholders!
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