gpt thoughts

I think the company may have some upside - probably up to the 70c mark or so - but in my view this is speculative, not intrinsic - based on takeover potential.

I do believe that the recent divestments have been all about dressing GPT up for takeover activity - however with 350 - 400m of earnings pa. and a current market cap of 5.5b - that puts it at roughly 14x earnings - which in my estimate is high.

I value LPTs based on their earnings capability, not on the ability to sell assets - so I dont put too much energy into NTA - it doesn't really matter what the NTA is - if there are no earnings, it aint worth s*%$t !

The company isn't due to earn anything from its development pipeline in the short term either...

So... I would buy $400m of earnings for < $4b when it comes to commercial property, with limited scope for growth in earnings other than systemic increases in rent - which may be 5% or so / year.

Currently market cap is 5.5bn and with no reason other than speculative I'm leaning towards selling my (considerable) holdings.

I would love it more than ever if SGP or someone else came riding in under the banner of takeover and paid 78c / share ... but... in my methodologies, this would be speculating, not investing.