Below are a couple of graphs that I've put together to help...

Below are a couple of graphs that I've put together to help visualise some numbers.

The first graph is from the SYR Diggers and Dealers Presentation (Aug 2018) - (Original Source: Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, June 2019)

The graph summarises the current demand (2018) vs the expected demand (2021) for both fine and course flake nature graphite.


Using the above information, one can calculate the annual compounding growth rate (that was assumed by BMI) for both fine and course flake natural graphite demand and then extrapolate into future years.

So, back calculating the annual growth rate using the above numbers, the annual growth rates are as follows:

Fine Flake: 11.2% pa
Course Flake: 13.8% pa

Below is a graph that I've put together (with table provided) showing the annual demand for natural graphite (both fine and course flake) extrapolated to 2030 (using the above assumptions).





Using the above table, I've also put together another graph to show the incremental increase in demand (additional to the previous year) for both fine and course flake natural graphite.

Conclusions:

- A total of ~451ktpa of course flake graphite will be required in order to meet the projected demand in 2021 (*Source: BMI). This corresponds to ~145kt of additional course flake supply (relative to 2018 demand).

- Even if GPX, WKT and TON all came online with their forecast output of course flake graphite ~100 ktpa (as per reiners calculation in the referenced post), there would still be a supply shortfall of ~40-50 kt (in 2021) that would need to be met by existing producers.

- Assuming an annual growth rate of 13.8% for course flake natural graphite demand, a total of 1.44 Mt of course flake graphite will be required in 2030. This corresponds to an additional ~1.14 Mt (per annum) (relative to 2018 demand).

- The year on year incremental demand would basically require 1-3 new course flake graphite mines (equivalent to GPX stage 1 output) to come online every year.



**As already stated, the above calculations and graphs are underpinned by data which is originally sourced from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (June 2019).**