Hi All,I have done some analysis I've done that I'd like to...

Hi All,
I have done some analysis I've done that I'd like to share for the benefit of you all.

GQG Flow analysis

Looks like every month they have had inflows, which total ~3.1 billion for the three months.
The model does overestimate inflows and GQG numbers provided are rounded and unaudited. I'd assume $ US 2.5B to be on the conservative side.
I believe we will know the actual flows when the December month is reported (Assumption is that they report flows quarterly like PAC)



Are GQG funds outperforming the market ?
(Data was 30.Sept.21 as that was the last quarterly)


All funds are ahead of the market from inception, 3yr. The focus should be YTD (31 Dec 20 to 30.sept 21) Once we roll off the 4Q 2020 numbers, 1Yr numbers will look a lot better. To my knowledge most managers are compared on 3yr basis. My focus is mainly on the emerging markets fund as it represents the majority of revenue despite only being 29% of FUM.




What is the company worth?

The prospectus provides an indication of revenue and profit forecasts for the company.



Assuming a profit of 250m USD which at the current FX rate is ~350m AUD.
Shares outstanding = 2,952,805,434
EPS = 0.1185
The valuation is dependant on the multiple which may vary with performance and flows. I'm applying a multiple of 17.5x.
This is the multiple of peers for comparison, the better the performance and flows, the higher the multiple.
AEF 127x
PNI 41x
MFG 13x
PTM 9x

I arrive at a fair value of $2.07 per share. I believe this to be a conservative valuation.

Thanks for taking the time to read my post,

Cheers,
Plague.