Graduating to the ASX 200, page-5

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27/04/20

08:00

Post #: 44269161
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Originally posted by rosencrantz: ↑

Ramelius sits comfortably in the ASX 300....being an unsurprising beneficiary of the current Covid crisis.
Can it graduate in the 3rd week of June to the ASX 200?
Will it make a big difference anyway?
I say yes to both questions.
The Dow Jones S&P organisation has already deferred consideration of the March 2020 quarterly benchmarks until June .
In Australia the composition of the constituents is heavily determined by market capitalisation-over the previous 6 months.
Were it to be determined by market cap today then Ramelius' $930m would displace at least 20 present members in the ASX 200.
Most of them self-select on the basis of significant recent declines in market cap .....oil stock Cooper Energy, aged care provider Estia, the lithium twins Orocobre and Pilbara, media stock Southern Cross.
But there is a larger group that are now looking vulnerable.Let's call them before-Covid BC stocks. names like g8 , Webjet, McMillan Shakespeare, GUD, Mayne Pharma .
Ramelius is a PC stock- post Covid . It can reasonably be expected to continue to outperform the BC stocks . Why? Unlike the BC stocks it has excellent visibility into immediate and short term earnings, it is a dividend payer with minimal debt and substantial cash. It is a growth stock in this PC world.
Its gold cousin and fellow PC stock Silver Lake has a similar production and reserves profile to Ramelius.SLR market cap is $1.7bn.What explains the significant premium being paid for SLR?
Its membership of the ASX 200?
I believe so.
The index committee has revealed over the years a certain discretionary capacity in its removal and addition processes.
I think the recently acquired status of PC stocks will weigh heavily in their favour when ASX 200 decision time comes in mid June.
The odds that Ramelius gets graduated into the ASX 200 are good.

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I've previously held stocks that immediately drop when they hit the ASX 200. I'm not quite sure why but it may have something to do with small funds that only invest outside of top 200 and obviously profit taking.

RMS Price at posting: $1.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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