Some rambling thoughts...A bit of an assumption from here but...

Some rambling thoughts...

A bit of an assumption from here but there is a possibility that the position of the appraisal well is to determine if there is a gas-cap in place (it looks to be up-dip to me). Being 8.5km away certainly gives a good indication that the discovery could be very big. The Graff-1 well alone is not enough to determine the size of the prize and how much (if any) of the up-dip portion is gas, or if the reservoir has pressure communication over a wide area. So if the appraisal well, Graff-2, is found to be in pressure communication with Graff-1, then it proves production wells would be likely to flow for extended periods (ie the reservoir is not compartmentalised).

Well data can show you where the oil-water contact is (even if you don't intersect it), but it doesn't tell you what is up-dip. They will need to know this to understand the size and make-up (oil vs gas) of the accumulation. Shell probably have a good idea based on seismic attribute analyses, particularly after calibrating with the new well data, but it needs an additional well (or more) to confirm.

I am wondering if they have testing kit on board and if Graff-2 will be tested or if they will come back later to do that. If they are looking for a gas-cap, then I'd suggest the latter.

Whilst the reservoirs in Graff are not the same as Saturn, the seismic I have seen in PCL's presentations appears to show equivalent reservoirs.

As I said, rambling thoughts...