You don't get another northern hemisphere crop (where the bulk...

You don't get another northern hemisphere crop (where the bulk of the world's cereal grain is produced) until May-June 2011. If the world is short now the pressure on grains can really only ramp up.

Flashpoints to watch are:

1. WA grain crop is nearly fried by lack of rain (1/3-1/2 of normal rainfall to date).
2. Argentina still in a dry pattern.
3. Canada receiving frost and rainfall. It needs dry weather to get crops ripened and harvested before the winter snows arrive.
4. Russia needs rain to get the next winter cereal crop sown.
5. Pakistan will struggle to plant a crop come next cropping season because everything has been washed away - irrigation infrastructure, fertilizer, seed grains, farm boundaries. Who is going to fund any infrastructure spend where the flood has decimated?

Assuming management don't stuff things up, then there is security in these rising grain prices ...