Yellowcake, what you are saying re the potential for substitution of ingredients and replacement is perfectly sensible - i'll back you on that one. I haven't seen much yet to say that is happening at the level of 2008 for severity but it also makes sense that the ongoing emergence of China and India mean that 2008 type pressures will probably be dwarfed in the future without higher consumption of fertilisers (and better grains etc).
I have to admit i do feel guilty sometimes about hoping to make money as a result of suffering of poor populations but we as investors can be part of the solution rather than being like the bad planners and governments that are the cause of the problems.
Adama, if we get another phosphate bubble MAK will certainly benefit irrespective of opinions on management for the simple reason they have the biggest resource base on the ASX with one project near ready to finance. Even if people don't like MAK management they would still likely punt on the company if only for the potential for a rising phosphate price to trigger a potential takeover.
AEV Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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