I don't think that's been reported, though I may stand corrected...

I don't think that's been reported, though I may stand corrected on this.

Yes there has been a pull back on DAP prices of late (around 10%) after a strong upswing to around $650/t. Some commentators suggest this is due to global economic uncertainty, which makes a lot of sense. Refer to the following article:

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/mosaic-cuts-phosphate-plans-citing-market-caution--4004.html

In particular I like what Mosaic's CEO had to say:

"However, Mr Prokopanko remained upbeat about phosphate prospects, saying weakened spot prices for the nutrient "do not reflect our outlook for the business, nor do we think they are sustainable".

"We continue to expect an above-average application season in North America and record-setting global demand for both phosphate and potash in 2012.

"We are confident strong farmer economics and agricultural fundamentals will ultimately prevail over the near-term cautious sentiment.""


Hence IMO this situation will be temporary. As the northern hem sowing unfolds over the next few mths, we'll see demand resume & likely escalate. Rising fuel prices will maintain ethanol demand, which will in part underpin corn prices & rising meat consumption in urbanising China will be a significant factor in strengthening corn prices & wheat will get drawn along as a substitute to corn. How the weather plays out & influences crop yields is also a huge factor & an unknown at this point. Refer to the following article also from Agrimoney:

http://www.agrimoney.com/feature/corn-prices---can-they-outperform-again-in-2012--132.html

Another indicator on where grain prices might go is the USD. Late last year it was strengthening (IMO unreasonably so) and USD sensitive commodities incl soft-commods pulled back. If the USD were to weaken as economic confidence returns & increases, commod prices will resume their upward climb. Economic prosperity is great for food consumption, along with the westernizing diet in China, India & other parts of Asia, incl greater meat consumption which requires grain to finish a lot of meat production in feedlots, let alone the growing global population.

In short there is a lot pointing towards increased demand for fertilizers in the months & years ahead IMO. This bodes well for MAK, the holder of the largest RP deposit of any publicly listed company & soon to be vertically integrated fertilzer producer in partbership with an Indian mining-titan.

I hope this is of some benefit to you & I wish you well in your decision making. It's been a tough game for the past few years, and while I'm not suggesting the challenges are all behind us, maybe we've seen the worst of it & better times lie ahead. Only time will tell.

Cheers