The election can influence the PEP-11 NOPTA decision date according to the following which shows how political this regulated process is: ...
"...I think because the Nationals federally are really no longer the party for rural and regional and farmers, they are really the fossil fuel and mining party, umm, and they do that at all costs, so yes, there is a fear, that the reason why Keith Pitt has not ruled out PEP-11 is because this is part of their horse trade and is a little bit of you know, ‘a you can’t tell me what to do, I’m in Queensland and I’m going to ruin your coast down there’. So, I think there is a bit of a power play going on..." Zali Steggall said (STOP PEP-11: Northern Beaches Virtual Town Hall Tuesday, 17 August 2021)
"The longer this goes on for, the more likely that they will, the minister will approve it." -Bruce Robertston (Northern Beaches Townhall)
"...I think the time frames we are dealing with here with PEP-11 are much shorter than that so I’m focused on the here and now..." and "...How it works is the license is expiring or has just expired, so obviously when a license is still in effect without appropriating someones property or having to compensate them, you can't cancel a license..." -Dave Sharma (STOP PEP-11: Eastern Suburbs Virtual Town Hall Wednesday, 18 August 2021)
I have ruled out July, August, September and October for an election, as the election would have happened/already been called by now/then if that were the case. November is a possibility, potentially being called anytime before 5 weeks from the election day ("With an official election campaign typically running five weeks" [thedailynews 31/08/2021]) which means a November election would have to be called by ~mid October.
I ruled out December as Antony Green correctly stated: "While historically the most popular month to hold a Federal election, December hasn’t been used since 1984, and any mention of a December election usually upsets the retail sector." https://antonygreen.com.au/when-can-the-next-federal-election-be-held/ And I doubt they would want to upset the retail sector anymore than they already have (with the lockdowns).
January and February can be ruled out due to history, as Antony Green described here:
If we have a look at what Scott Morrison did previously, he dissolved the parliament and issued the writs for the previous election with about 5 weeks to go. Therefore, if the Resources minister's position is "dissolved" along with parliament by the 14/01/2022 - 07/02/2022, then I am looking for a PEP-11 NOPTA decision before 14/01/2022 - 07/02/2022. We know that the sunset date is 12/02/2022 according to post (52305698), however as we have all discussed "Whether or not consideration is given to include the time taken to make a decision is a matter for the Joint Authority." (52305698).
I am also aware the company said the following (however that assumes the Joint Authority give further time, [I don't believe this is guaranteed]). ASX:BPH, PEP 11 Joint Venture Statement of Clarification (11 Feb 2021)
My Conclusion: I think according to all the evidence, if we say the eligible March days for the election are 5th, 12th, 19th, and 26th of March 2022, then 5 weeks before is approximately 14/01/2022 - 07/02/2022 which means the parliament might be dissolved 14/01/2022 - 07/02/2022. Therefore, I am looking for a decision on PEP-11 before the sunset date of 12/02/2022 failing this according to the dissolved parliament (or NOPTA processing times) it would have to be after the election.
