The political situation for the LNP appears to be worsening.
Polling suggests an ALP win.
Betting markets suggest an ALP win.
Jacqui Lambie suggests Bass and Braddon will fall.
I am leaning towards a hung result on the night (in May 2022) with the ALP to form a coalition with the crossbench.
Simon Holmes-A-Court's Climate 200 project is looming as a major disruptor. It is well organised, well funded, and enjoys high profile support. They are targetting the seats of climate deniers in the LNP.
Candidates supported by Climate 200 have been announced to challenge in the following LNP seats:-
North Sydney (Zimmerman) Goldstein (Wilson) Hume (Taylor) Wentworth (Sharma)
Climate 200 candidate announcements are pending in the following:-
Additional high profile Independents will contest Hughes (Kelly - ex LNP, now UAP) and Robertson (Wicks). It is not yet clear if Climate 200 will financially support their campaigns.
If any more than two of these candidates are successful, the LNP could not form Government and that assumes LNP seats in WA, Bass and Chisholm can buck the forecast and be retained.
May 2022 is a long way off but with a sinking approval rating I cannot see Scott Morrison winning the next election.
An ALP/Independent victory will very likely result in the end of the PEP11 permit.
GBA Price at posting:
2.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
