Johny I think you've pretty well nailed it with your estimates of the odds of possible dividends as well as the possible reasons for each.
I agree with you that (on paper) 4c is the most likely outcome.
However, given the demonstrations of stinginess to date, 3c is possible.
I hope that some of the pointed questions delivered at the AGM, although shrugged off by the BOD, may have conveyed the impression that SHs are far from happy with the dividend policy.
As always, Chairman Xi has the last say....
Grange's Iron ore pellets at A$427/tonne, page-8
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