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Chinese refractory demand expected to fall to 24m tpa by 2017 — China Refractory Association | Industrial Minerals which peg refractory demand as increasing.
Output, Chen said, is expected to fall to 26m tonnes.
China’s refractory output was at 29.3m tonnes in 2013, with 5m tonnes exported, according to The Association of China’s Refractories Industry.
In 2012, output was at 29.5m tonnes, according to 'The Refractories Industry Worldwide 2012-2017’ report, published by Material Technology Publications. This report said it expected output to grow to 33m tonnes by 2017 in China.
The top five importing countries in 2013 were South Korea, India, Japan, Vietnam and the US, according to The Association of China’s Refractories Industry (see graph).
Source: The Association of China’s Refractories Industry
Chen believes that demand and output will slide for three reasons. Firstly, Chen summarised that the refractories industry had shown signs of overdevelopment since the year 2000 and was now more likely to slow down as demand stabilised.
Secondly, he argued that the refractory industry was in a "serious overcapacity situation," with many companies either stockpiling, or producing below capacity. The situation is such that it is unlikely that any new investment will be made into new projects, Chen added.
Finally, Chen made the point that he expected refractory consumption to gradually drop as research and development into more sustainable practices begin to mean less wastage.
Current refractory consumption for the steel industry in China has dropped to 20kg of refractories per tonne of steel produced, down from 55kg/tonne in the 1980s. In a dry process cement kiln consumption can be as low as 0.5kg/tonne.
