Graphite export restrictions could finally be the push, page-4

According to the USGS, in 2022 the US imported 82,000 tonnes of natural graphite, of which 77% was flake and high-purity. The top importers were China (33%), Mexico (18%), Canada (17%) and Madagascar (10%).

But taking into account the fact that EV batteries require run-of-mine graphite to go through purification and coating, a process controlled by China, the US is actually not 33% dependent on its rival for its battery-grade graphite, but 100%.

This is a precarious position to be in should the country want to stay in contention for EV dominance.Hence, graphite is now firmly placed on the US government’s critical minerals list, and is identified as one of five key battery minerals that are at risk of supply disruptions. The other four — lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese — typically form the cathode that decides the capacity and therefore tend to get more attention.

But graphite, as the anode material, is probably the most crucial one since it’s far superior to current alternatives.

According to the USGS, the battery end-use market for graphite has already leaped by 250% since 2018. It’s thought that battery demand could gobble up well over 1.6 million tonnes of natural graphite per year.

For context, the 2022 mine supply was about 1.3 million tonnes, which means we’re very close to entering, if not already, a period of DEFICITS.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence projects that natural graphite will have the largest supply shortfalls of all battery materials by 2030.And this is just counting EV battery use only; the mining industry still needs to supply other end-users. The automotive and steel industries remain the largest consumers of graphite today, with demand across both rising at 5% per annum.

BMI has said as many as 97 average-sized graphite mines need to come online by 2035 to meet global demand across all sectors.

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DYOR IMO