Thanks Graphite. If you'll indulge me some more brain picking on your thoughts...
Firstly, it's not a 'want' of volume I am looking at - no graphite miner could use recarb as their sole business model. You're right - the business model fails and is pretty crap as a 'sole purpose' selling model. But it's cost recovery for what otherwise is overburden or regolith (i.e: dirt with no or little value that must be factored as COST of getting to better ore than can be sold for good money - batteries, buckey balls, fuel cells storing recycled dolphin farts... ). If this useless dirt can be sold for anything (even at a loss) than the larger business model of any graphite has improved metrics due to lower overall cost. Otherwise their just moving dirt around on their tenements for increased costs. So that is my sole angle with this. Some of these bulk super pits are talking about costs as low as $US200-$US300. If it can be sold for anything higher than that - then great - but surely it can be sold for AT LEAST that much?
The company being lucky to sell 2000m/t pa point? Megatonne right? That's 2,000,000kt isn't it are have i grossly misunderstood what you said there? A little sleep deprived lately with a newborn so maybe my maths is totally - but is that type of demand not considered massive? Jaded fix up my maths for me if I have butchered - doing the PAYG thing so typing on the fly.
As for nuclear - I see the market a lot closer than 10 years out. SGL landed a 300,000 pebble order in 2012 i think it was - whether they have fully delivered on it I cannot confirm. But SGL also teaching the Chinese how to make them within their borders. SGL pebbles have just passed irradiation qualification in Netherlands - which means commercialisation at a large scale is finally possible. So aside from their own domestic needs for building new reactors over the next 10 years, the Chinese are also an exporter of nuclear tech too - they like making money for selling reactors (and it appears they also like using Koreans for the build, but that relates to the water moderated reactors - like the ones being built in UAE i think it is). Only reason I mention UAE is their mineral sands - figured the Arabs would be buyers of this tech, but UAE buying light water reactors for that purpose opposed to pbr's has thrown a spanner in that theory. But then the Canadians factor in here as they have massive mineral sands mining industry too. They're also working prismatic - who I agree ARE at least 10 years out. Anyway I digress - just illustrating the point that I don't see demand being more than 10 years out for pbr's - 5 or even less looks more likely.
What will be the anode material of choice. I don't know - but graphite has been it for the last 25 years. If I had to go on the record for what I think will be used in 10 years time, I'd say the market will be dominated by spherical G coated in graphene and LTO batteries - but that is assuming LITHIUM remains in the battery. What I'm trying to say is that I see it more likely that Lithium will be thrown out of the battery before graphite is. I live on the edge don't I? Perhaps on another planet - but just calling it as I see it.
Your use of the words 'market price' for this and that. This is what is very hard for me to figure out on my own. As has been noted by many pricing is very 'opaque'. Gosh I wish I had that Riddle fella or that pretty boy Corti as penpalls - they're the best source of what an actual 'market price' is. Admittedly I'm fumbling in the dark on that pricing front.
Do you have an idea of the actual 'market price' for recarb, batteries, nuclear - even those bloody aluminium anodes so we can throw those SYRians a bone... Stormcrow, Moores et all are just like me I think - fumbling in the dark when it comes to pricing and using their best 'guesses'. They're deducing prices - but I'd like to see some hard facts. Like those SYRians that think they can sell dirt for recarb at $US1000 p/t - what they been smoking hey?
Cheers to you too Graphite. Hope to keep this going. Feel free to be 'cruel' and candid on your thoughts on the above - especially those 'market prices' - cruelty is usually a form of kindness in the world I live in. I'm a big boy - I can take it. Not sure about the rest of the SYssies though - .
). If this useless dirt can be sold for anything (even at a loss) than the larger business model of any graphite has improved metrics due to lower overall cost. Otherwise their just moving dirt around on their tenements for increased costs. So that is my sole angle with this. Some of these bulk super pits are talking about costs as low as $US200-$US300. If it can be sold for anything higher than that - then great - but surely it can be sold for AT LEAST that much?
