Nobody suspected China had so much SG capacity to bring online...

Nobody suspected China had so much SG capacity to bring online and there's no reports showing it's close to full capacity either. But there's plenty of reports saying anode makers are cutting NG out of their products since SG is so cheap.

I've seen the forecasted timelines as well, they vary. The Fastmarkets article linked says deficit in 2030, I previously read 2028 so my takeaway is nobody knows really. I'm not putting much trust in such long term ideals since we were meant to be in a graphite deficit now, 2023.
The timelines you've listed are the ones I'm basing my investment decisions on too, isn't waiting another 3-4 years for the NG industry to ramp up bleak? It is for me since forecasts had the ramp up this year.