It hasn’t had the high drama associated with the Trump administration’s attack on China’s control of rare earths, but for a bunch of ASX graphite stocks the imposition of stonking anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite has been just as telling.

The US wants to wean itself off near-complete reliance on China for its battery graphite needs and figures the best way to do that is to make the Chinese stuff so expensive that ex-China supplies become so much more attractive.

Ideally that induces a build-out of capacity in the non-China world, although China’s clear dominance is going to take years to erode. But given anti-dumping duties as distinct from tariffs are sticky, the required build out can now gather pace from a firmer base.

Any other region with electric car and battery energy storage industries to protect might now also get serious with the Chinese. But again, it is going to take years to get up the new mines and downstream processing facilities to make a difference.

The anti-dumping measure announce on July 17 by the US Commerce Department was set at 93.5% on active anode material (AAM) for batteries. When combined with existing tariffs applied to Chinese imports into the US, the impact is more like 160%.

Jarden analysts had a go at the illustrative level of what impact the anti-dumping measure announce on July 17 by the US Commerce Department was set at 93.5% on active anode material (AAM) for batteries. When combined with existing tariffs applied to Chinese imports into the US, the impact is more like 160%.

Jarden analysts had a go at the illustrative level of what impact the anti-dumping measure will have.

“At the risk of over-simplifying, duties differ from tariffs. Functionally, our understanding is that a trading company exporting Chinese AAM and importing into the US must lodge the duty with US Customs and Border Protection upon the landing of the cargo,” they said.

“Illustratively, if natural graphite AAM was trading at $US4,000/t (FOB) China, the landed price in the US would equate to more than $US8,300/t following the payment of the applicable duties (and freight).

“US manufactured AAM becomes immediately more competitive.”

That’s just what a US lobby group of AAM producers, including the lead graphite stocks on the ASX.
Jarden said it expects the new duties on Chinese material will drive increased demand for ex-China AAM supply,

Good news for IG6!