Lverty,That guy has it spot on IMO.The line from the piece that...

Lverty,

That guy has it spot on IMO.

The line from the piece that you posted "Early warnings of a crash are dismissed over and over (just a temporary correction)." resonate with the recent opinion of the top rated gold forecaster about the current rally in the POG.

Apparently top gold forecasters are still bearish on the outlook for gold.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-17/top-gold-forecasters-still-bearish-after-2014-rally-commodities

According to the report

"Futures in New York rose 10 percent in 2014, rebounding from the biggest annual drop in three decades, and reached a three-month high. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion increased by 3.2 metric tons last week, the most since December 2012, after slumping 869.1 tons last year when prices slid 28 percent."

And the top rated gold forecaster Robin Bhar, the head of metals research at Societe Generale SA in London and the most-accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years is reported to have responded with “I just see this as a corrective move”.

I wonder how long he will stay at the top?

The down turn in the POG since the beginning of QE3 in Sept 2012 is blamed to a large extent on the markets belief that the US is in recovery and investors have moved away from gold as "safe haven". Analysts rightly point to the liquidations of gold from gold ETF's as a contributing factor.

What they don't seem to remember is that prior to 2003 gold ETFs didn't exist.

According to Wikipedia the first gold ETF was Gold Bullion Securities launched on the ASX in 2003 (see Aussies can do stuff), and as of November 2010 SPDR Gold Shares was the second-largest ETF by market capitalization across all categories and is one of the top ten largest holders of gold in the world.

Please remember that inflows into gold ETFs have just turned the corner and these products work both ways. When gold is in demand they remove physical gold from the supply side.

Great I say, someone has recently invented a product which can add to the demand for bullion in a rising market.

Just a question of which way the US goes this year. If you use gold as a leading indicator this year doesn't look to good for the US economy or it could just be a "corrective move" if you believe the top rated forecaster of gold in the world!!