If I was so damned clever Exc why didn't I continue to follow Brombs hint re the Wiki Feb preso and troll thru those PB and DW comments on such things Ive just been jabbering on about !!!
Its there for all of us to read from the proverbial horses gobs.
Enuf of my speculation.
Here's Brombs LSE posts. Mant thanks to Bromb.
First up is Brombs impression of what GB are up to, or not, as the case may be. What is clear is that they missed the unconventional sweetspot back when Ed Duncan was running the show and r now stuck between the proverbial North Slope rock and a hard place, no matter what kind of bent the Alaskan media try to put on their big depend on their recent 3D exploits as a path to their unconventional hopes.
Ironically they have become very dependant on what we are up to !!!
Brombs personal interpretation of GB.
Cab not a lot of similarity, GB the outfit that bought the leases north of the HRZ, got pipped at the post by Bazinski for lease 392301 which would given them access to the all year round gravel pad, seem to have spent all their money on 3D and three wells which so far apparently not proved up anything, the last drill ended up a shambles with a fight between GB, Nabors and DOG, changed most of their management team and done very little since 2015 apart from whinge about the exploration credits issue and announce grandiose plans that do not happen. They have potential but currently seem to be reliant on activities of neighbours Repsol/Armstrong and AEA to prove up their leases, in truth I believe very little of what Pat Galvin says in any case.
And His Feb presentation quotes.
Nice to know they align with a few of my personal thoughts on where they might be headed. Subconcious interpretation ???
Questioner:
To complete your scenarios in the high case, what would you do? What would you expect?
Dave Wall:
I think it said the same thing just earlier. That looks like we'd get after drilling a horizontal well from the pad as a follow-up to Icewine 1 and 2 from the same location and then we look at expanding or building a new gravel pad from which drill the four wells with the one gas injection well. Then, we look to delineate to the eastern west. Not all of those wells, theoretically, if we can line up the ducks, could happen starting from the first quarter of next year. We probably wouldn't be able to execute them all at the same time, so there'd be a priority on which one is going to have the most value. That could probably look like the horizontal well as a low-hanging fruit to follow-up on the vertical success, and also the delineation wells to try to get our arms around the HRZ and our confidence level in the mapping.
Paul Basinski:
To that point, the offset wells on either side are effectively what we did in the Eagle Ford when we drilled the Hookes well which is 55 miles away. The point is that if you do this and then you get the data and you find something that's very similar, then effectively, with your reserve classification, right now, it's 2C, we'll get an elevation across the board just because A MAJOR RISK FACTOR HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT IF WE SHOW THE CONTINUITY which is really the first step in order to be able to move a project forward. If you can get your contingent resource evaluated or classified as an ELEVATE CONTINGENT or an undeveloped resource, then it becomes much more valuable.
Posters Comment : As Laz has been saying re resource classification.
There's also another objective, which is to prove the producibility and also to maximize the flow rate from this well because if you don't maximize the flow rate, and we get 50 or 60 barrels and only one stage is working, but we understand that that's very significant because we can go and drill horizontal, the market is not going to give us the love that we need to take the project forward. We change the priority to be equal flowability and locating the right zones to be primarily maximizing the flow rate, because that will be the thing that helps us move the project forward in the most meaningful way for everyone in this room.
Poster comment: Remember, FAIL SMART !!!
Then, second, but only about a small amount is determining where to put horizontal wells in the future basins. What we're doing is we've changed the logging program to help us with that second part, so run information, the image logs and a more sophisticated logging suite which will be run before and after we do the fracture stimulation, and putting traces in the fracture stimulation so that we can understand better where the productivity is coming from. We will be able to answer that question as well.
This is the best of both worlds and it's also really utilizing some of the changes that have happened in the industry over the last couple of years, where we've had this very depressed oil process and that has caused innovation particularly in Lower 48 in the US where people are being able to effectively stimulate rock in a much more efficient manner in a lower cost and with higher or better flow results. That's the best of both worlds in terms of higher rates and lower cost. This is very similar and an emulation of what is being executed now based on those recent innovations.
If you reverse calculate that back to what we need, and we think a horizontal well needs to flow two to two-and-a-half thousand barrels a day on IP for the economics of this project to work. As you'll see in the appendix and as we've released before with this breakeven less than 40 bucks, it's about 100 to 150 barrels. That's the measure of success. We get a 100 or 150 around that range and we understand why we've got that number. It's not because it's a fluke or because we've failed for the wrong reasons or whatever, and get a low number. Then, that, for us, is the measure of success. That's the guidance.
(20min delay)