PK,
Longtom currently has an estimated 70 - 120BCF based on previous drilling, and even then the gas /water contact was not hit. The Patricia Baleen had only 80BCF and is in production, so Longtom is close to commercial based on current reserves. Also note that the probability of success for Longtom is around 1 in 2 (broker figures) which is quite good.
Given that they will be drilling perhaps 5 wells in Bass Strait and the success ratio is around 1 in 3 (using 2D seismic only). At least one should be a success. The downside is relatively low - you just need to wait until the next well is drilled. It does of course depend on your purchase price. If you are risk adverse you can sell down as it approaches target.
G
great close, page-4
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