I think most HC posters also agree that success at Longtom or Grayling is the only way to get a significant share price rise in the short term. Speculation is good to a point, but only hard facts will confirm and then build on this.
Going by Nexus' figures, Longtom is worth 66c/share and Grayling $1.50/share. The fact that Apache want in on both these drills in very encouraging and this has added to the anticipation of the drills. As a quick and dirty approximation, add 66c and $1.50 and divide by two (see previous post) and you have $1.08 which is almost three times higher than the current price. Given the massive upside potential, you'd have to say a price approaching 50c would be appropriate until they find something solid.
That said, the downside if they are unsuccessful on both wells would probably be to 25-30c levels, until the next well is drilled. While there is definate risk, upside versus downside is stacked heavily in the favour of those that hold.
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