great depression on the cards

  1. 5,261 Posts.
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    I have no idea how the world will avoid a great depression.
    Firstly 58% of US GDP is debt and the EU has 80% of its GDP as debt.

    There is no doubt in my mind that the EU will be in a recession soon. This could reduce their GDP by half.

    The EU revenue is only 44% of GDP and expenditure is 50% of GDP, they already have a short fall of 6% or
    900 billion euro a year on top of $12 trillion euro debt.


    Another problem, 70% of the EU GDP is services. Usually services are the first jobs go in a recession. This will slice EU revenue and GDP. If 25% of service jobs go, that would cut EU GDP by 2.5 trillion euro. That would raise debt to 105% of GDP. I dont think my figures are too extreme because the service sector looks very top heavy.

    Each major country of the world has debt of 80%. The only country that doesnt is the US which has 58% GDP but they are not in any position to bail anyone out.

    If the EU goes into recession and it probably will, debt will double as a percentage of GDP. All major EU countries will have between 160% and 250% debt as a percentage of GDP.

    Japan.....225
    Greece....145
    Itally....119
    Singapore.102
    Belgium....96
    Ireland....96
    Portugal...93
    Germany....83
    France.....81
    UK........ 76
    US........ 58

    I would love to hear other opinions about this.


 
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