247,Of more concern was yesterdays ann. and volume (18.533M) and...

247,

Of more concern was yesterdays ann. and volume (18.533M) and the effect it had on the sp...nada...and continues! Consider that t/o on the BHPP "pull out" day was 18.227M, and sp fell ~3c.

Yesterday's ann. was (to my mind) a reinstatement of around 50% (subjective) of what OEL had with the BHPP deal.
We now get $27.5M + 60% WI back, as opposed to a 33.18% free carry on 2 x wells at ~$140M ($46.5M).
Others may argue the 50% figure, but it will do for the purposes of the argument I make here. It could well turn out in future to be a better position than we had, but we still need a partner/s to achieve that.

So a 50% (subjective) reinstatement should have resulted in a sp recovery to say ~9.5c. With the volume that went through it could have been more than that.

We obviously have a very large seller/s sitting on this atm, and NDO also have some sort of sp suppression going on (interesting to see what would happen to NDO with 18.5M t/o on a day??).

The speculation at NDO is CR, but surely that can't be the case here. Shouldn't be for either of them with G II about to come on tap.

Perhaps it has more to do with the question Ozzy asked re what's going on with the Senkaku Islands. Lots of posturing and military air defensive talk, US getting physically involved...that makes some people very nervous.

What happens here is possibly going to have an impact on all the other disputed claim areas in the Sth China Sea, some of which affect the Philippines.

Personally, I think it will all blow over like it usually does, but there's no telling who might do what to break the supporting twig.

Just thinking out loud.