My 2 cents worth...Been thinking about ICN's unique model...

My 2 cents worth...

Been thinking about ICN's unique model compared to everyone else i.e. GSA before reserves.

One could argue that this is in fact the ideal model. It's just that normally little companies aren't able to get such a deal.

Start off with a GSA and in effect become a gas broker. This gives you an income with a relatively modest outlay. But , better still , you are more than just a broker because you have a flexible gsa which enables you to do deals with various suppliers in which they may earn a stake. Eventually , you start supplying your own gas and the profit margin increases and so on.

If ICN manages to go down this path ( and it's a big if ! ) , ultimately the Chinese may take them out. The Chinese are pretty canny in business and this is probably a clever backdoor way of entering the market.

The question of who is going to let ICN use their lng plant ? The answer , everyone. BG are looking for customers for a third train. Santos are building 2 trains on 5 train site. LNG limited have a quality site. Depending on who you talk to , they are all short gas already . It's well known that the more trains you build , the cheaper they are. Allegedly , a third train is half the price of the first so it's easy to see the commercial advantages of processing someone else's gas if it helps you with your capital expenditure.

One last thing . The gsa , is for a minimum of 40 million tons over 20 years. So , correctly managed , how big could it eventually get ?

ICN management has a bit of a chequered performance record imo which makes me cautious , however the longer this goes on , the better it looks. Not one for the daytraders but maybe a good punt in the longer term.