Hi Ninj,
hmmm yes but maybe no, there's many scenarios on the chessboard.
You would maybe agree that CBH is the anchor on MB? With Endeavour gone why stay at all? And you're right about the CBH 50%...The 50% stake could be bought for pennies imo. NCM could negotiate a deal to put some serious drilling down to that copper to PEX to prove it out before a take over was tabled or with an agreement that a TO was predicated on results with price negotiated. All exploration takes risk and capital, my point being NCM have serious capital. I think I read a really deep drill can cost about $300k.? Pennies for NCM to run quite a few. Regardless NCM invest in greenfields ect. Not a bad punt to take after 12 years of PEX drilling and proving there's minerals there, we just don't know exactly how much. It's not like they would turn up in a paddock hope for the best, PEX have down a lot of work so far.
We know that these Cobar deposits can have very deep roots and mine on for decades. We keep hearing this is the highest grade copper resource in Australia. NCM specialise in deep cave mining, looking at autonomous machines ect and it's down the road from Cadia! Likewise SN ect are not drilled that deep.
There could be much more mineral under the current drill depths. Don't forget NCM mine gold AND copper.
Then we have Jetson who needs to make his mark and SBM have extended their investments to the limit so if he could facilitate a deal to sell off 16% at a good price and he also has all the inside information from their history with PEX.
Another issue is that PEX has extremely high credibility as explorers amongst their peers. Mining awards an example, but if you check also Linkedin posts RT is actual extremely well regarded, HC is the only forum of negativity I've seen and it's actually a very small echo chamber as all social media is.
I think the negativity here on HC has over reached, and affected the price as only retail holders are selling and the trades are tiny. I note that none of big investors have not left the table so far.
As retail investors we have absolutely no idea as to what the big picture actually is or what talks are in train. But I do know that for the right price the big blocks would definitely sell, that's why they invested.
And I refer back to this NCM statement: As the world’s remaining ore deposits become deeper and lower grade, block cave mining with its high productivity and low operating costs have become the underground mining method of choice when the orebody warrants it.
That sounds like Cobar to me. After 12 long years, this could be the time for the PEX holdings to transform into something different, all you need is cash. NCM has plenty of cash. Risk and reward, who actually knows how big the copper body is or the others for that matter given Cobar runs deep? A deep drilling program could unlock that answer.
Of course if we read only HC posts the future could be bleak, but the upside could be significant. From all the explorers I have studied PEX is still going hard after 12 years and kicking goals, most just give up
or switch to exploring in Africa...but PEX has focussed entirely on this one area the whole time. We cannot deny their focus and tenacity.
So the real question here is not what we know, but what we don't know.
40% Zinc hits, km's of continual strike, Miner of year (no mean feat of peer group recognition) and "One of the highest grade undeveloped copper resources in Australia."...this is not dumb explorer.
I propose the big investors are sitting on a situation which takes time to play out and perhaps the time is near. It seems to me the ducks are lining up, but retail investors don't know and can't see it because the big block investors will never show their hand.
A very experienced industry share analyst once told me 95% of retail investors lose money; it's all about the timing. Is 23c a good time to sell or a good time to buy?
Imo the sp will continue to trade on negative retail sentiment, and then one day there's a TH and the cards are on the table, too late if you're out; a bonanza if you're in. Anything could happen, and it always happens when we least expect it.
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