Not to be too pedantic, but it is important to keep in mind the...

Not to be too pedantic, but it is important to keep in mind the distinction between valuations and predictions.

A valuation will help you make investment decisions and is much easier to work out for a mature dividend paying company, but in the early stages needs to account for potential and may have to use assumptions where information may not be available. Current valuation can then be derived several ways such as applying a risk factor. (Your own risk appetite should define that)

Once you have a valuation, look at price. Since price will constantly move around, based on the sum of all buying/selling activity going on at any one moment, predicting it needs either a crystal ball or great charting skills. Longer term you can reasonably expect that as risk reduces an efficient market will eventually price it at fair value.

Investing in small companies is really about getting your valuation right, then capitalising on gaps between your valuation and price. Since a valuation is usually tied to progress it will change step by step over time. Price will move frequently depending on day to day market activity. The key to sleeping well is having confidence in your valuation. Leave the predictions to the traders to worry about.

Price is what you pay, Value is what you get