MNB 2.04% 5.0¢ minbos resources limited

Green Ammonia Project, page-105

  1. 13,807 Posts.
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    "Danish fund manager and offshore wind developer Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) has joined forces with Portuguese developer Madoqua Renewables and Dutch consultancy Power2X to build the €1bn ($1.08bn) project, which will use 500MW of electrolysers to produce 50,000 tonnes of green hydrogen and 500,000 tonnes of green ammonia annually."

    https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/iberia-fast-becoming-europes-green-hydrogen-hub-after-fourth-large-scale-project-unveiled-this-year/2-1-1203685

    That works out to US$200 million for every 100MW of electrolyser and associated ammonia plant to produce 100,000tpa of green ammonia.

    "As of Dec. 15, ammonia prices in Europe were the highest globally at $1,120/mt CFR Northwest Europe (up 47% since the launch), while FOB Black Sea, a major source of ammonia to Europe, was assessed at $1,055/mt (up 49%)."

    https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/121621-global-ammonia-prices-surge-on-european-natural-gas-cost-push

    Green ammonia will likely sell at a big premium to ammonia produced from gas or coal. One company recently said they expected over $2,000/t but allowing for lower prices later and assuming $1,000/t for green ammonia, then 100,000t of green ammonia production per year for MNB would be worth $100million in revenue per year.
    Some other green hydrogen/ammonia projects are reporting purchasing green electricity for as low as 5-7c/kw. MNB will be paying something like 1.5c-1.7c.
    Electricity is by far the largest operating cost so with electricity prices that low for MNB, I think that operating profit from that $100mill revenue could be at least US$60mill or A$80mill per year. any lower and other projects with much higher costs wouldn't be viable. That would be a solid return for a US$200mill investment and an annual profit equal to our current market cap.
    If that doesn't sound impressive enough, the company has applied for another 100MW to double capacity and profits.
    I would imagine the green ammonia would be developed in stages rather than going straight to 200MW and will be developed after the phosphate project is operational and providing cash flow. The cash flow and backing of the IFDC and Angolan government should make debt funding much easier. There would likely be equity too I would think but by the time we are producing phosphate fertiliser and we have at least a scoping or PFS for the green ammonia, the sp and mc would be much higher than current. Quite a few multiples higher I expect.

    Last edited by chuk: 22/04/22
 
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