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Green Ammonia Project, page-112

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    You picked up on some negatives which I partly agree with but;
    You say his comment " we should be ok" sounded like a lack of confidence. I thought he was being a bit sarcastic, for want of a better word. Maybe understatement is a better word. Ie, I thought he meant that funding was going to be easy.

    You're saying they made a mistake ( "did a bad thing" ) on the change of strategy? I don't see it as a mistake at all, I see it as a change made necessary by lack of availability of MAP as an input and luckily having the flexibility and demand to be able to produce and supply an alternative product until the MAP becomes more readily available again and they can then switch back to the previously planned product. Did you want them to release a DFS and secure debt funding under false pretences while knowing they would need to make changes? You complain about lack of transparency while suggesting that's what you would have preferred? Did I misunderstand you on this? The market changed very rapidly and by a much larger degree than anyone could have foreseen. The change of strategy became necessary over a short period of time. Changing the strategy last minute out of necessity shows full transparency IMO.
    You seem to suggest that funding will be equity only in your post or did I misunderstand you? I didn't hear anything to suggest that debt funding won't make up the bulk of funding. It sounded like debt funding was close to being finalised but it is now delayed probably until the release of the DFS.
    Probably the most important positives were the massive opportunity in the ammonia project thanks to the structural shift higher of gas prices and the big advantage the company has in producing locally. He confirmed that with transport costs for overseas ammonia producers, those producers would not be able to compete even using gas rather than green electricity.
    He also mentioned early on that in Angola, if a fertiliser is produced locally and is available, then it is pretty much the only product that farmers will be able to purchase.
    He also said there was no shortage of willing partners for the green ammonia. I heard nothing but confidence on both projects proceeding and being high margin projects.
    It's unfortunately difficult to put a value on the phosphate now until the DFS because of the changes but I'm getting increasingly confident about the green ammonia becoming a very large value project going forward, with a NPV easily above US$500mill IMO.


    Last edited by chuk: 27/04/22
 
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