The bull will not return for at least 18 mths. The US economy is...

The bull will not return for at least 18 mths. The US economy is driven by domestic demand which has for decades feed off credit. This now all gone and will not return in a hurry, if ever. In credit markets things will NEVER be the same.

I believe, we are probably seeing a massive shift in the USA from being domestic credit driven economy to an export driven economy. The subprime crisis has expediated this process. This is why the Fed is happy to see the USD keep falling against other currencies. It also why 15% of my portholio is in gold shares.

I am so seriously overweight resources ATM. I feel a bit like a gambler - which I hate. I'm backing the Chindia for the medium (LT it is unstoppable) term but wary that the imbalances being corrected now in the global economy (currencies, credit markets) may impact on China and that we may be in a commodities bubble (a bubble within ongoing bull market for comm_.

The USA economy still massively bigger than any other. When you read about figures regarding losses and spending/credit withdrawn from the economy in trillions we really are in uncharted territory. In these circumstances anything is possible.