Frank said, "GBG will rank well as a mid tier producer / exporter of IO, but 32 MTA for GBG is 6 years down the track, hopefully it will be sooner than that."
I agree Frank, spot on and realistic. To even get to FMG's capacity which is well down on their expected output, we are still at least 6 years ot more away. With the 12mtpa production on hold indefinitely, 6 years may even turn out optimistic.
You answered Riddick's question well- in the next decade, GBG may well be in the top class category of IO producers- but not because of output volume. As Frank says it is a mid tier producer for the forseeable future. It's still a long while off but Oakajee and POG could prove to be GBG's bottleneck in time.
A long while back I mentioned that to lift it's shareprice appreciably, GBG needs to expand in order to boost volume and that is their best hope of getting into the big time IO producer's league.
As also mentioned around the time, Ansteel may well be using GBG as the vehicle to entrench itself here but it will come at a cost to GBG shareholder in the way of further dilution. If the tradeoff is beneficial to EPS-then I'm all for it. Hope the board uses better foresight and judgement next time though.
Gindaldan, I agree with you mate, I'd love to see GBG get going and run earlier than I quipped but I can't see much happening to cause a 3.5x rise in the shareprice in the near to medium term as the ramper is suggesting.
It won't happen in a pink fit unless some stunningly surprising good news comes our way in the meantime. The market is already prepared for the EPA, FIRB and CDB decisions so a mild response to each is the most likely outcome.
Hopefully I'm totally wrong and GBG gives a number of you a chance to say "I told you so"!
GBG Price at posting:
58.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
