Grinch spoils the party, page-26

Pioupiou,

I am not sure we have the BGC NPAT FY20 estimate correct (ie $34.8m = $29m x 12/10).

Based on the Presentation, the 'Client' 'Post-synergy' NPAT FY20 estimate is $29.1m - I believe this is for the full financial year.


But the NWH FY20 accounts will only show NPAT FY20 of $24.25m ($29.1m x 10/12) as BGC will only contribute 10 months (ie from 1/9/2019)?

Questions for valuation:

• how long will it take to achieve the synergies of $15m?
• the actual synergies might be more or less than $15m?
• if the 'Client' option proceeds during FY20, the NPAT FY20 will be a combination of 'Base' and 'Client'?
• which NPAT FY20 should we use ($29.1m or the 10 month contribution of $24.25m)?

Many combinations to consider! Any FY20 Valuation will need to be heavily qualified!

As a back of the envelope check (I think), the NWH FY20 metrics are:

• Pre-BGC NPAT $72.537m
• Pre-BGC shares 381m
• Pre-BGC EPS ~ $0.19 per share
• Pre-BGC PER = 15
• Pre-BGC Valuation $2.85
• BGC is EPS accretive (say +14% pre-synergies and +25% post-synergies)
• Post-BGC Valuation is $3.25-$3.56