Grinch spoils the party, page-27

KKLL

The NPAT of $29.1m is indeed for 12 months, so increasing it by 1.2 is not valid.

Bumping up the Finance Costs because of BGC may not be intellectually sound, because that is covered by my approach of separating NWH of old and BGC Construction to derive the total NPAT. What I'll do is simply increase FY19 Finance Cost of NWH by prorating it to Revenue.

On synergies, the presentation gave them as $15m, before tax, and hence $15 x .7 = $10.5 after tax, which is built into the $29.1m NPAT that I used.

The whole process of guesstimating a 12-month TP is so fraught with the potential to be wrong that we know for sure that things will pan out to be different. Further, hitting the TP in 2020 does not mean the price would not retreat later in that year. The bit below reflects changes mentioned above, which with the changes they effected in subsequent calculations are in red font.
Values in $000.

........................................................................ FY19 .. FY20 Est
REVENUE ............................................. 1,078,124 .. 1,550,000
Other income (RCR gain on acquisition) ...... 5,120
Finance income …............................................ 739 ............ 700 roughly similar
Finance costs …............................................ -7,236 ..... -10,403 prorated to Revenue
Share of profit / (loss) from associates ........ -2,084 ........ -2,000 roughly similar
Materials & consumables used ................ -237,099 .... -340,873 prorated to Revenue
Employee benefits expense ...................... -295,353 .... -424,624 prorated to Revenue
Subcontractor costs .................................. -246,304 .... -354,107 prorated to Revenue
Depreciation amortisation expenses .......... -62,053 ...... -89,213 prorated to Revenue
Plant and equipment costs ....................... -145,651 .... -209,400 prorated to Revenue
Impairment of financial assets Gascoyne .. -33,522
Other expenses ............................................ -8,944 ...... -12,859 prorated to Revenue

Profit before income tax ............................. 45,737 ..... 107,221
Income tax (expense) / benefit .................. -13,467 ...... -32,166
Profit for the year ........................................ 32,270 ...... 75,055
Add BGC NPAT FY20 est ............................................. 29,100 as per BGC presentation
Normalised Total NPAT FY20 est ................................ 104,155

EPS using share count 430 million ............................... $0.242 divide NPAT by 430m shares
Target Price using PER 15 ............................................ $3.633