KKLL If I develop an EPS to project into the future, I always...

KKLL
If I develop an EPS to project into the future, I always normalise it, and hence I now ignore the GCX reversal possibility, because any reversal would be a one-off. Mr Market is not as phlegmatic as I am, so a significant reversal of the GCX provisioning is likely to spike the SP, just as he irrationally trashed the SP when the provisioning was announced in FY19. My view then was about half of the provisioning was likely to be how things would transpire, but I now expect more than half is likely to be reversed.

My view is that Management usually avoids short-term puffing of the SP, and it likes to take hits up-front, and so it would typically be inclined to keep the NPAT as low as possible, and delay paying tax as much as is possible. Jules is probably more interested in NWH's SP a decade hence than this financial year. As an aside, the recent window-dressing had a purpose, I think – to get a good price for the capital raising to fund the BGC acquisition. By window-dressing in this case, I do not mean fudging the performance metrics, but rather focusing comparison of FY19 on recent years since NWH hit the pits, rather than on the much longer history, especially from an EPS perspective.

Have a cool Yule.