Comment: The major indices were down modestly on low volume. All posted inside days. Friday had seen a solid bullish reversal day (down then up), but there was no follow through buying today. So we have a consolidation at the highs of this rally. That's usually bullish.
NYSE NewHighs/NewLows. 93/42. Ratio: 68.9%. NL Technical Comment on the SP500 (closed at 1685.33)
Indicators:
MACD Histogram: Below zero. Negative. MACD: Above zero. Positive, but below its signal line and falling. RSI.9 is at 61.3. Falling below 70, Negative. Stochastic. 82.6. Overbought and below its signal line. Negative. Bears want this below 80. CCI.14: +30.3. Below +100. Negative. Bears now want this below zero.
Support and Resistance:
Major Oblique Support: 1602.87 (-4.89%) Major horizontal Support: 1669.2 (-0.96%). Horizontal Resistance: 1695.53 (+0.61%) 40-Day TMA: 1632.6
The uptrend has broken to the downside. Indicators are negative and have more room to move to the downside. There’s plenty of nearby support. This could get serious if those are broken. At this stage we have a sideways consolidation working off the overbought readings on the indicators. Until 1670 (round figures) is broken to the down side, we'll have to think this is consolidation/accumulation before another run up. Volumes lately have been low. This may be due to seasonal factors - America is in the midst of its summer holidays, so low volume is not unexpected.
Factors affecting Australia (mostly Materials and Energy): US$ Gold, -0.24%; Copper, -1.83%; Oil, -0.21%; Coal, -0.87%; Steel -0.43%, AUD, -0.62%. The Ozzie Stocks ETF on the NYSE (EWA) -0.79%. BHP on the NYSE -0.37%.
Below is a chart for the $US Gold ETF (GLD):
The PM is sidling sideways at the top of Gap Resistance. It behaved in a similar fashion back in April/May. So there's a good chance that this will fall from here as it did in May. A break upwards would be bullish. GLD has been on a short term buy signal since 9 July. The trend up is now stalling. MACD Histogram has fallen below zero. If the oblique up trend line is broken to the downside, that will finish off this short term up trend. Wait.
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