CDU 0.00% 23.5¢ cudeco limited

The suspension is that the Directors, cannot sign the accounts...

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    The suspension is that the Directors, cannot sign the accounts as a going concern.  If they released it the share price has the potential to go down.

    They have a repayment proposal to Minsheng, that persumably can show that they are producing and ramping up production and will be able to meet the repayment schedule.  The also mention they are confident of this, then that must be good for shareholders.  

    Analysis,

    We know that they have 4.9M USD at least, so that could be $4000USD Per Tonne Copper so 122500 Tonnes processed.

    We know that they could have options for quarterly so that is 15 million USD.

    If the ramp up produced 4.9 Million USD then a plant running at full production could get a Cash Flow over this.

    Let look at a Hypothetical Analysis

    There is costs to take out lets says cost are 66% of revenue then from a 3Million T Plant, 1 Million Tonnes of that will produce Free Cash Flow.

    At 1% Copper this is 10,000T Copper at $4000 USD CU per Tonne, this makes it 40Million per year
    At 1.5% Copper this is 15,000T Copper at $4000 USD CU per Tonne, this makes it 60Million per year
    At 2% Copper this is 20,000T Copper at $4000 USD CU per Tonne, this makes it 80Million per yea

    If we look at the May 2016 Update http://www.cudeco.com.au/files/uploads/2016/05/20160511-Market-Update.pdf.

    In Sept 2015 there was 0.9 T of copper at 1.7% (not CuEq) The Stock Pile is 2.4Million 23490 Tonnes of Copper or @ $4000 USD for CU that is $93M USD

    Or about $31Million USD Free Cash Flow (if 66% costs)

    If NCu is not measured in this so we need to add this as an unknown variable amount the cannot be effectively measured in a JORC.

    If the payment plan has $15 Million USD per Quarter and the stock pile grades at 1%.  Again allowing for our assumptions.
    - 66% being costs
    - Plant 100% Production is 250000T of Ore per month (750,000 per Quarter)
    - Copper at 4000 USD per Tonne

    There for 3 months the plant will provide 9.9M USD from 2475 T of Copper (Cash Free or .33%)
    We need to make another $5.1M USD so Native Copper produced needs to be .51% for 1275 Tonnes.

    In the above I have been under on the costs, based on the presentation mentioned above in which they have, the below which works out around 67%

    Column 1 Column 2
    0 1,930,000,000 Revenue
    1 1,299,000,000 Operation Costs
    2 631,000,000 Cash Flow

    I have allowed for CU to be $4o00 USD, currently around $4800 USD.
    CDU needs to produce 3750 Tonnes CU per quarter.
    CU Grading @ 1%
    NCU Grading  @.51 %
    Costs to be 66% of Production.

    There is a balancing act as a higher NCU grading would reduce costs, increase revenue and a higher concentrate grading increases revenue.
 
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