Vish
Billion of dollar in time!! But for the time being, u r way off target here with y'r calcs.
I think u missed the point, I made over the w'end. Have a read of my postings about Perseus field etc from Friday onwards, was meant to b educational for this very reason.
Firstly this well Zeus-1 is not about Methanol, its a gas well.
MEO intends to sell any commercial find as feed gas into LNG projects, that will hopefully bring in more dollars (current rate is US$4.5/mcf or A$7/mcf).
MEO's acreage in block NT/P68 is about Methanol, not the current block WA361P.
Fundamental difference is the composition of gas. NT gas is high CO2 (close to 30%) & is not suitable for LNG projects, & hence the Methanol angle to that tenement.
The current block WA-3619 & nearby giant gas/condensate fields are low in CO2 & are LNG based. So one can't value Zeus on current methanol rates, its all about gas here & thats what the parties are interested in, find gas & sell it at mkt rates to interested parties.
For a GIP of 18 tcf, at 20% recovery & at 0.10c/mcf In-Ground Value (pre-commercial rate), Z-1 unrisked value in cents per share is 0.30c/share (or A$126m), and at 10% risked value 0.03c/share.
In case of a commercial discovery, the 0.10c IGV changes over to current mkt rate (negotiated by Operator) of say A$7/mcf which gives a unrisked value of A$8.8b.
Another 8-9 days to go, b4 we know what lies beneath, but Z-1 is not about Methanol. The valuation Tollhurst did included all their current projects including Z-1.
Hope this clears up things.
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