Here, I am only going to touch on the Indian market.
Wine consumption in India has grown from basically zero to 30 million Litres per annum.
This represents a 21% CAGR. Over the next 10-15 years, wine consumption in India could reach 510 million Litres per annum. This is conservative and would still be less than the 1.3 Billion Litres of wine consumed in China per annum presently.
Treasury Wine had approximately 40% market share of Australian wine exports into China.
If TWE's market share of wine exports to India remains similar at ~40%, and India imports approximately 10-20% of wine demand from Australia..
TWE's volume shipment into India would grow from basically zero to 40 million Litres per annum.
Using an average unit value of $11 per Litre, this would represent around half a billion of dollars of NEW revenue PER ANNUM to Treasury Wine Estates.
Secondly, there are signs that China needs to be a part of the CPTPP despite anxiety concerns from existing member countries. It could well be that China concedes on trade issues e.g. tit for tat skirmishes with Australia, in order to enter the CPTPP. This would include removing wine tariffs on Australian wine.
This would be a boon for TWE and send the share price well over $20 IMO. I am buying TWE with everything I've got.
(20min delay)