First thing first. GRR SP is significantly undervalued due to one uncertainty (how to get Southdown into production without a dilutive cap raising or taking on huge debt in long term loans). Capital raising (for the purpose of developing Southdown) is OUT-OF-THE-QUESTION.
BTW, Savage River is cash flow positive. The cap raising has nothing to do with OPex at Savage River. Read the cap raising booklet !
SouthDown is an attractive proposition for a JV partner looking at a buy-in. It's not huge but still substantial and infrastructure is all looked after. All governmental and environment approvals are done. The pellets to be produced are suggested to be of better quality and higher %fe than the Savage River pellets. GRR is highly experienced in magnetite mining, ore processing / transportation and pellet production (the magnetite junior explorer in comparison are just guys with drilling data and blue sky promises. The funding needs for companies like AXO and GWR are just as daunting). GRR in this respect is low risk for the JV partner.
The likely scenario is that 50% of Southdown will be sold off with a sizable % of pellets guaranteed as offtake for this "partner" as a condition for th einvestment. This partner will also bring necessary funding (specifically Chinese state banks at MATE'S interest rates).
GRR 70% stakes will probably be reduced to 35%.
That's okay. GRR current SP hasn't taken Southdown into account as a positive. It's being viewed and judged "incorrectly" as a short-medium term liability in terms of capex required for it's development and hence dragging down the SP. The "incorrect" assumption is that GRR will keep it's 70% and go to the debt market for the money (assuming they can borrow this kind of money).
However, the market will be caught unawares when the announcement comes that a Chinese JV partner buys up 50%, then at 35% ownership of 7mta of pellets, GRR's share is 2.5mta (about the same as Savage River peak production).
GRR SP will then sky rocket. 5MTA (2.5 Savage River + 2.5 Southdown)of premium DR pellets is nothing to sneeze at. When benchmark pellet price go through the roof in coming years, GRR may end up being a bad dream for those who jumped ship and resort to spitefully talking down the stock with regrets.
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