Given the recent hammering of the iron ore price, i took the...

Given the recent hammering of the iron ore price, i took the time to play with some figures..

This is what has always attracted me to Grange.. The product they sell falls by 40% in value and the metrics still look excellent..

The below are just my back of the envelope calculations, these may be incorrect and are just for a bit of fun. None of my posts are advice and should not be considered that, as always do your own research or speak to a professional (i am definitely not one!)

That aside, the below is what i come up with... again as we know alot of variables in there like AUD, Fe Price and Production costs however a snap shot at this point in time give me the confirmation bias i am looking for . Hopefully these numbers can be critiqued once we get the actual audited accounts and details later this week!

	ASX GRR
1	Shares on Issue	1,157,338,698.00
2	Current Net Position 30/06	$499,000,000.00
3	Tax estimate deduction on available cash from earnings during FY	$100,000,000.00
4	Cash / Receivablesvalue per share	$0.34
5	Debt	0
6	Share Price	0.63
7	Market Cap	729,123,379.74
8	Assumed production costs (AUD)	$100.00
9	Life of Mine/Production asset (years)	10+
10	Seaborne index 65% Fe fines	157.8
11	Pellet Premium USD	46.2
12	AUD	0.71
13	AUD Pellet Price	$222.60
14	Earnings per tonne	$122.60
15	Likely annual production rates	2,500,000.00
16	Assumed EBIT	$306,491,584.85
17	Tax of 30%	$91,947,475.46
18	Earnings after 30% tax reduction	$214,544,109.40
19	Earnings per share	0.19
20	Assumed PE ratio of 5	$0.93
21	Assumed PE ratio of 5 + cash at 30/06	$1.27
22	Assumed PE ratio of 10 (life or project) + cash	$2.20
23
24	40% discounton PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$0.87
25
26	20% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$1.07
27
28	10% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$1.17

Take care all.