GRR

2.74%

37.5¢ grange resources limited.

Hi Nietoperz,Thanks for the analysis, I think the AUD Pellet...

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BunnyCom

14 Posts.

23/08/21

10:40

Post #: 55491627

Originally posted by Nietoperz88: ↑
Given the recent hammering of the iron ore price, i took the time to play with some figures..

This is what has always attracted me to Grange.. The product they sell falls by 40% in value and the metrics still look excellent..

The below are just my back of the envelope calculations, these may be incorrect and are just for a bit of fun. None of my posts are advice and should not be considered that, as always do your own research or speak to a professional (i am definitely not one!)

That aside, the below is what i come up with... again as we know alot of variables in there like AUD, Fe Price and Production costs however a snap shot at this point in time give me the confirmation bias i am looking for . Hopefully these numbers can be critiqued once we get the actual audited accounts and details later this week!

ASX GRR
1 Shares on Issue 1,157,338,698.00
2 Current Net Position 30/06 $499,000,000.00
3 Tax estimate deduction on available cash from earnings during FY $100,000,000.00
4 Cash / Receivablesvalue per share $0.34
5 Debt 0
6 Share Price 0.63
7 Market Cap 729,123,379.74
8 Assumed production costs (AUD) $100.00
9 Life of Mine/Production asset (years) 10+
10 Seaborne index 65% Fe fines 157.8
11 Pellet Premium USD 46.2
12 AUD 0.71
13 AUD Pellet Price $222.60
14 Earnings per tonne $122.60
15 Likely annual production rates 2,500,000.00
16 Assumed EBIT $306,491,584.85
17 Tax of 30% $91,947,475.46
18 Earnings after 30% tax reduction $214,544,109.40
19 Earnings per share 0.19
20 Assumed PE ratio of 5 $0.93
21 Assumed PE ratio of 5 + cash at 30/06 $1.27
22 Assumed PE ratio of 10 (life or project) + cash $2.20
23

24 40% discounton PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc) $0.87
25

26 20% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc) $1.07
27

28 10% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc) $1.17

Take care all.
Expand
Hi Nietoperz,

Thanks for the analysis, I think the AUD Pellet price you used is miscalculated. I think you went

Seaborne index 65% Fe fines + (Pellet Premium USD/AUD)

instead of

(Seaborne index 65% Fe fines + Pellet Premium USD)/AUD

I.e. EV is even more of a joke

Cheers

GRR Price at posting: 62.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 37.5¢		Change 0.010(2.74%)		Mkt cap ! $434.0M

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Hi Nietoperz,Thanks for the analysis, I think the AUD Pellet...

Week 27 Wrap: ASX hits all time high; CBA shares' two realities; US inflation hits 3% ahead of China plenum

Immutep reports strong response rate from immunotherapies treating carcinomas

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

SKS Technologies wins US$90M award to supply power to international hyperscale data centre in Melbourne

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

BHP dips as WA nickel suspended after A$6B hit; losses eased by US CPI and forewarning

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

ASX hits all time high out the gate on Friday trades following bullish US inflation data

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

	ASX GRR
1	Shares on Issue	1,157,338,698.00
2	Current Net Position 30/06	$499,000,000.00
3	Tax estimate deduction on available cash from earnings during FY	$100,000,000.00
4	Cash / Receivablesvalue per share	$0.34
5	Debt	0
6	Share Price	0.63
7	Market Cap	729,123,379.74
8	Assumed production costs (AUD)	$100.00
9	Life of Mine/Production asset (years)	10+
10	Seaborne index 65% Fe fines	157.8
11	Pellet Premium USD	46.2
12	AUD	0.71
13	AUD Pellet Price	$222.60
14	Earnings per tonne	$122.60
15	Likely annual production rates	2,500,000.00
16	Assumed EBIT	$306,491,584.85
17	Tax of 30%	$91,947,475.46
18	Earnings after 30% tax reduction	$214,544,109.40
19	Earnings per share	0.19
20	Assumed PE ratio of 5	$0.93
21	Assumed PE ratio of 5 + cash at 30/06	$1.27
22	Assumed PE ratio of 10 (life or project) + cash	$2.20
23
24	40% discounton PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$0.87
25
26	20% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$1.07
27
28	10% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$1.17

Hi Nietoperz,Thanks for the analysis, I think the AUD Pellet...

Top Stories

Week 27 Wrap: ASX hits all time high; CBA shares' two realities; US inflation hits 3% ahead of China plenum

Immutep reports strong response rate from immunotherapies treating carcinomas

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

SKS Technologies wins US$90M award to supply power to international hyperscale data centre in Melbourne

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

BHP dips as WA nickel suspended after A$6B hit; losses eased by US CPI and forewarning

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

ASX hits all time high out the gate on Friday trades following bullish US inflation data

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News